SAT Question 9ff88d6b: Words In Context answer and explanation

English - Words In Context - Fill In Blank Single Word
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The work of Tobias Gerstenberg et al. on tracking eye movements supports a theory that people envision ______ scenarios when making causal judgments: when subjects were asked to look at two colliding billiard balls and judge whether one caused or prevented the other’s movement through a gate, their eyes looked at where the target ball would have gone if the ball that altered its path did not exist.
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Difficulty:Hard
Which choice completes the text with the most logical and precise word or phrase?